Seeing Red: An Examination of Ilia Topuria

An overview and assessment of Ilia Topuria's skillset in Mixed Martial Arts, why he's the premier pressure fighter, and some speculations about his future in one of the most unforgiving talent pools.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Introduction: Minimalism & The Pressure Archetype

A few years ago, I read how the sport of Mixed Martial Arts was decided by the ability to control ‘initiative’. That is, someone who enforces their game first, last, consistently and effectively is more likely to wrest command of the fight itself. What makes this inherently difficult is that the actual variety of styles in MMA is an incredibly wide spectrum; you will have to account for numerous intangibles on top of gameplanning for specific approaches. This has led equally to even more diversity with fighter archetypes and case studies. Sometimes, this manifests with generations catering around towards set trends and ideas as the sport brings in new generations of talent or the methodologies and accessibilities of camp changes per fighter. This is all to say, becoming one of the best fighters in a sport like MMA is demanding. Those who do manage to understand what they do best and manage it according to their opponents are the most likely to reach that summit. This, in turn, is also why the actual trends of styles can change so quickly at that top.

Over the last decade or so, there has been a particular trend developing towards activity in bouts. Pace became a mainstay decider of fights just as much as being able to compete in phases - attrition was essential to establish control. Fighters such as Tony Ferguson marched forward to force opponents to walk a burning tightrope with him, betting that his offensive creativity and sheer immovability would guarantee the opponent was fried long before him. Now, we see Merab Dvalishvilli shrug off the exertion shooting for takedowns in an effort that is simply unsustainable for peers. Alexander Volkanovski, despite working in volume himself, applied his mixups through a blistering amount of feints to work every move off of another. This is to say, particularly in the striking side of MMA, you’re liable to see the relationship between the importances of initiative and pace manifest in abundant activity. This is no coincidence, being able to access and survive in higher physical gears than the average athlete is what can and will separate you from the rest of the pack. The lingering question is whether greater activity is that answer.

Personally, I do not subscribe to the notion that there ever was one single answer to reach the top of this sport and there never will be. There have been numerous fighters who have reached the peak of that mountain without needing to have a conditioning or activity advantage. Fighters such as Jose Aldo, Yoel Romero, and Robbie Lawler may not have been able to wage a marathon battle over the course of five rounds at the speed of a rollercoaster, but they did construct games to make sure their choices mattered to win without having to go one-hundred miles per hour. Even though this did not guarantee a win everytime, it’s a testament to these men that they could wage competitive battles whilst even at stylistic disadvantages.

Still, initiative is governed by activity, but the amount of activity isn’t the deciding factor. Effective initiative is actually determined by the kind of activity or ‘how’ your activity affects the course of the bout. In the context of fighters who do not weaponize conditioning, there is greater emphasis on maximizing every small decision to the greatest effect. This is why, when operating under this philosophy, we can refer to these persons as ‘minimalists’. Minimalists stray from throwing dozens of strikes to overwhelm; they will focus on throwing that one strike well and at the right time.

It’s important to note that this isn’t to say that being an effective minimalist is better than someone who thrives on variety and quantity. It’s that it’s rarer to find this kind of fighter in the current landscape of MMA. On that subject, there are two emergent elite pugilists in recent memory who embody what an effective minimalist looks like. One is the now former UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev. The other is the case study of this topic, one former UFC Featherweight Champion, Ilia Topuria, who targets Makhachev’s now vacant throne.

Topuria’s rise through the featherweight rankings was a seeming storm, contrasted by his style being around one of escalation. Embodying the components of pressure, Topuria stalked every man in front of him, then landed with a rare authoritative display of dynamism and effective decision-making. If he didn’t finish them, he ensured that he was the unquestionable winner by the final bell. The results speak for themselves, with his undefeated record at that, culminating with some of the finest displays of cage management I can remember as Topuria finished two of the greatest pugilists the sport had ever seen after proving he could match them measure-for-measure. With Topuria now endeavoring towards the peak of another weight class, his presence at featherweight felt as a bit of a fever dream, yet it cannot be stressed enough that, in a division that has nothing but greats for champions, Topuria is no outlier despite his stay being temporary, as he has molded himself into one of the finest pressure strikers the sport has seen.

The pressure archetype is often misunderstood. Like initiative, offense is usually perceived by aggressiveness in activity. It’s easy to see why relentlessness is favored; simply overwhelming your opponent means they are less likely to fight back. However, this is more apparent with swarmers than those that stalk their opponents, which is where the pressure fighter classification applies. Pressure fighting, in actuality, is about the establishment of threats to pin the opponent in a place of fearful resistance. That is to say, the pressure dealt is more about making them worried mentally than broken physically. To do so requires the aggressor to have control of the means that engagements happen; they must have the positional advantages, force the bout to be at their preferred pace, and be attentive at any and all times.

In Mixed Martial Arts, even with the abundant favoring towards offense, it’s a rarity to even see that sort of pressure fighter. The reasons for why vary. The many phases and transitions offered in MMA will inherently stifle a ton of approaches, just as physical attributes can equally influence outcomes, yet it remains a very apparent feature that most MMA fighters are not effective at basic pressure tools such as cutting off the cage. Some, such as Sean Strickland, will employ a constant array of teeps to keep the opponent uncomfortable to engage whilst never being able to pin them to place. And even then, there are fighters who can cut the cage off, but believe maintaining that control demands a substantial amount of energy. When he first arrived in the UFC, Justin Gaethje would maximize damage to the legs by preventing his opponent from being able to escape the cage wall without working hard, yet he himself had to fight at a simply unsustainable output and bet he was the tougher of the two.

I again want to emphasize that fighters who are aggressive with significant activity is not a mark against them, especially if their results are consistent or if they have the energy to keep enforcing their offense without drawback, merely that this goes back to the topic of initiative: You do not often get fighters in MMA who can bring their threats with constant menace who prioritize effective moments that they build towards instead of a minute-to-minute output. This was why, even though he has absurd conditioning, Petr Yan’s performance against an extremely versatile fellow striker in Cory Sandhagen was impressive as he halted the pace, marched his man down, and forced him to work for every inch mentally and physically. And this is also exactly why Ilia Topuria fascinates - because his focus is primed around efficiency that embodies excellent pressure fighting.

The questions that are to be addressed are:

1. What tools does Topuria employ to be consistently successful?

2. How has he evolved his game to handle different kinds of matchups?

3. What are some weaknesses and has he addressed them?

Calculated Measures

It may surprise that I don’t believe Topuria’s approach is complicated at all. To summarize, Topuria looks to press his opponents into areas of least resistance where he can punish their mistakes. This is pressure fighting at its most basic iteration as we covered above. The question becomes how and why has this continuously worked? Again, we have to go back to a previous point about minimalism - the idea that you make each individual tool have the maximum benefit. You can ultimately narrow down the total number of things Topuria does to very few, but each has been refined for optimal efficiency. If you had to identify the keystone of his game to make this all happen though, it comes down to how he manages space.

Topuria’s stance distributes his weight mainly towards his lead leg to ensure that he can press with intention. What is more subtle is Topuria’s posture in how he folds at his waistline. It’s common to see Topuria shift his hips downward or towards said lead leg’s direction.

Why he does this is where things get complicated, mainly because these are more akin to what you would see amongst professional boxers.

In fact, MMA fighters who operate at low postures like Topuria are typically wrestlers looking to employ the threat of the takedown to pressure. Boxers who employ a low base are operating similarly, yet there’s a key difference - and it’s mainly weight distributions between the legs. Topuria exemplifies this better than anyone else.

You see, why Topuria presses on the frontfoot is to plant and still be mobile because he can shift his weight backwards onto the rear foot - and vice versa - and can cover a wide array of motions or space.

Doing so not only lets Topuria escape and enter ranges faster than expected via hopsteps (and is actually safer to do so in the cage as opposed to a ring), it’s innately tied to his upper body movement, where he can alter his strike selection whilst still feinting and being defensively active - all at once.

Where Topuria’s pressure specifically thrives is determined by how his feints affect the opponent. Weight distributions don’t simply just let Topuria be mobile, they let him press whether he commits to a step forward or not.

In other words, Topuria can afford to both feint a step forward while actually managing to pressure at the same time because the movements he uses are either the same or so subtle you cannot read them.

Primarily, you’ll see Topuria fold his hips towards his lead leg almost seamlessly. It’s not uncommon for Topuria to be proactively weaving with his upper body side-to-side as he steps forward either, which can further disorient the opponent as to whether he’s prioritizing pressure or is responding to their own threats - when sometimes, the answer is that he’s doing both at once with uncannily similar telegraph. Opponents are not going to be inherently comfortable reading the range Topuria is at because he can change it so fluidly and because they’re already concerned about avoiding his pressure.

Featherweight great Alexander Volkanovski is also fond of distributing his weight to set up his offense, but he often facilitates it towards one of several committed strikes that he can play off of while threatening the opponent. Topuria is almost the opposite - he can be favoring one strike or might just be repositioning.

Because of that, it’s very common for Topuria’s feints to draw out his opponent’s offense to make reads accordingly.

What makes this even more dangerous for them is that Topuria tends to be incredibly conservative as to when he commits to a strike. Many fighters make their reads of their opponents based upon patterns, but the one facet that Topuria pays attention to is their footwork, so his priority is to be in a position to strike first. Him being patient isn’t a hindrance because he’s always doing something to make his patience worth it.

When Topuria does commit to his punches, it’s not just surprising because of his athleticism, but also due to his timing. While Topuria’s game weaponizes the fence as an area of enormous danger, he loves to attack his opponents when they reset their stance when they’re least likely to plant and fire back.

I’d like to draw attention to Topuria’s lead hand. Acting as a feeler and feeder, Topuria often probes with his left to feint and parry. In combination with his already active level changes and use of backsteps, Topuria can flexibly identify what his opponent’s offense is and respond defensively if needed.

These facets extend to Topuria’s jab, which usually manifests when he steps in. I’ve explained how Topuria can disguise his entries, though it’s notable just how rarely Topuria’s jab is punished - it being mixed in with said entries is why his spearing body jabs - frankly, still an underutilized tool in this sport - are so proficient at backing his opponents into the cage.

Another reason is how Topuria jabs - he often pushes the jab out an up-jab as opposed to flicking it out to generate force to push the opponent backwards with its speed. This kind of potshotting is difficult to punish unless you’re jabbing with him while laterally stepping because that’s when Topuria himself is jabbing.

In the early portions of his career, Topuria’s jab came in the form of a counter to keep the engagement in his direction - this has only been improved.

Another feature of upjabbing is that it’s easier to post or retract your forearm in exchange for not putting out throwaway punches in volume. If the opponent tries to retaliate, it’s common for the posting frame to let Topuria keep them at bay as he hopsteps back, catch shots on a ‘barrier’ or even set up another avenue of attack.

I should point out that while Topuria doesn’t put out a lot of noise at range with active throwaways, he will use his jab to draw out the opponent’s attack if his feints alone don’t do the job.

It’s atypical for a rear hand to demonstrate surprising versatility, though Topuria’s deserves some attention.

The same process still applies in how he mixes his punches, feints and upper body weight transfers seamlessly to surprise, though there’s been a number of occasions recently where he will leave his right hand out as a frame should he risk being out of stance.

You’re more likely to see the right more sparingly than his left, however, because Topuria seems inclined to use it in decisive phases of the action. For instance, Topuria may use the right hook as a key punch to advantageously win a pocket exchange due to its trajectory up close being hard to punish and easy to transition into between other punches.

If Topuria overswings on a left hook beforehand, the right hook has recorrected his positioning in the exchange while backing the opponent off. If he overswings afterwards, chances are, the right hook has a chance of already forcing a retreat.

Outside of his instincts in the pocket, Topuria’s right comes out in explosive counters if he needs to regain space off of his backsteps as his main tactic against aggressors.

One benefit of hopstepping backwards is that as soon as your rear foot lands, it can let you generate the right about of leverage to reverse your weight in the other direction and said resulting force off the pull is devastating if it connects because it can brutally punish the opponent should they still be marching forward into it. Even should Topuria not hopstep, his wide base lets him lean just enough to set up similar pull counters.

There is some discussion to be had about Topuria should he not be able to pressure, but there are numerous reasons why many who’ve tried to press him back are not able to - and this a pivotal one.

To bring this all back, Topuria’s striking game is constructed around using his feints and strikes to outposition his opponents consistently and then punish them for their positional changes. It’s a very simple game in concept, but execution demands that someone like Topuria be doing the right things at the right times - especially in controlling the space inside the cage by effectively pairing your weapons together.

Case in point, how Topuria can disguise his shot selection and effectively disorient his opponent’s rhythm while building upon successes he may have found seconds ago.

When that does happen, Topuria manages to corral each and every man he fights into traps of his own design. I ultimately believe that is what makes Topuria so dangerous in the space of MMA - this sport’s fighters often lack nuanced defensive footwork, so someone like Topuria who attacks that area specifically is going to have a field day. But, even against more proven technicians, Topuria has managed to get to each and every one of them through this route.

There is no finer demonstration of this than some of his key decisions to outposition and then checkmate Alexander Volkanovski. The cornerstone of Volkanovski’s patented death-by-one-thousand-options mixup game relies on his own jab, feints, and kicks. Topuria’s pressure naturally forced a lateral movement approach.

Going to his right seemed a safe bet though Topuria’s cagecutting seemed to discourage Volkanovski from feeling he could jab safely compared to going left, the problem was that Topuria never conceded easy space. With one direction cut off, Volkanovski chose to focus on circling left.

Topuria then established the threat of the cross counter by integrating the inside slip off of his upper body movement to constantly threaten to step into Volkanovski (and still cut him off) and force a pocket exchange - where, even with his improved boxing ability, Volkanovski has always had a career-long discomfort with exchanges past a set layer.

Circling towards the power hand made Volkanovski have to walk a tightrope while staying active and mobile, one which Volkanovski found success handling behind a pull jab, but Topuria restricting many of his weapons was making that tightrope shorter and shorter.

Lastly, Topuria keyed in on how Volkanovski loved to kick off of his punches and vice versa. The problem was, if Volkanovski kicked first, he was going to have to reset to plant and throw - and that was where Topuria pounced.

This clip is the culmination of Topuria’s above efforts and how he is systemically closing in on Volkanovski.

Alexander Volkanovski is, make no mistake, one of the greatest Mixed Martial Artists to ever live, but much of his success with his spatial navigation is managed through his assortment of mixups.

Even at his absolute peak, it was not the most difficult task to push him back or cut him off; his footwork has always had issues hidden by his incredible depth and ice-cold composure - and it was still going to require the right decisions to pin and punish him accordingly.

Topuria’s game provided a natural counter to that weakness and would be an enormous issue regardless of how Volkanovski was returning from a knockout loss one weight class higher or not.

In reading the above, it should be obvious how immensely talented Ilia Topuria is. The questions now become, is there room for his opposition to find a way to hand him a loss?

Risk Factors

In a sport with the kind of horizontal depth that Mixed Martial Arts exhibits, nobody is inherently invincible for the same reason as no one can truly master everything. Even the greatest champions and competitors eventually meet a challenge, something they either barely overcome or simply cannot. Ilia Topuria may have beaten every man he has ever shared a ring or cage with in professional competition - and there’s a good chance he may well remain unbeaten - but there are places to look for his future opposition to get the better of him.

In spite of his exceptional combination of patience and decision-making, Topuria remains someone whose best successes rely upon being the man who pushes forward and specifically upon his control of the centerline. Because of his wide base, when Topuria commits to stepping forward or backward, it has to be at just the right moment. In a burst of forward motion, Topuria risks being vulnerable to intercepting counters, particularly as he dips to his right.

Tangentially-related, I do think the criticism of Topuria overswinging has become less pronounced over time, though I certainly believe there is cause to be concerned with him head-hunting in open space - and smothering himself into a tie-up as he steps forward:

There is not enormous amounts of data to gleam from Topuria in said tie-ups, but with how many times he has had his back pressed to the fence, where passivity behind keeping his feet apart is the prominent defense, there is some definite worry should he face someone who weaponizes the fence with mauling clinch offense or can transition between grappling phases more seamlessly.

Topuria’s early career indicated that wrestling was actually a major base for him, having most of his wins by submission or sustained ground control. While it’s apparent that he is, at minimum, a competent grappler, he remains a rather untested one in MMA’s elite echelon. His outings against Ryan Hall and Bryce Mitchell do indicate several desirable qualities; however, there are moments where he seemed to be content playing guard against the latter. If that becomes a recurring pattern instead of an energy preservation tactic, that can easily be consequential.

On the backfoot, because hopsteps cover a wide amount of space, they risk falling into linear retreats should the opponent pursue. In particular, Topuria’s legs can trail to be open to followup leg kicks or wide shots for takedown attempts.

That said, for Topuria to be put in these positions requires followup without compromising your stance across the same area of space, diversity in shot selection, and being able to make him keep stepping back behind the shoulder without getting drawn into his counters.

The amount of space covered being key here, because going after him will straddle that line between avoiding those backstep counters and being able to cover that same, wide distance without chasing - mixups are a necessity to do so. This is to say, while it appears Topuria has a noticeable flaw with his footwork, it is only an issue if you can put him in those positions - and it is possible - because his defense on the retreat requires diverse variety and positional awareness to break through (In other words, not losing your stance).

On the subject of backwards movement, it should go without saying that this area is also a bit of an unknown outside of glimpses. In some earlier bouts, when hurt or encountering mixups, Topuria seemed to struggle.

Recent outings demonstrated some signs of effective neutral space management, mainly by circling to his left behind the jab. Against a fellow cagecutter, this is an area he is likely to be seriously tested in if there aren’t more tools he can employ at that distance.

It is essential for Topuria’s future opposition, if they can’t take away the frontfoot from him, be able to manage range. While Topuria’s feinting game has proven potent, this does not mean the space between should not be filled with noise to disrupt his rhythm and draw him into more vulnerable openings.

Throwaways in particular are useful because Topuria is meticulous about choosing when he commits to a strike, leading to his defensive reactions becoming overloaded with too much data that the initiative can be taken back.

Mixups are essential to make that happen - and have a proven effect at taking space back at minimum. The greatest question for opponents is if they can capitalize after doing so.

It’s an understatement that Topuria is a prolific pocket threat, yet there are signs that he isn’t as adept should the exchanges continue, ranging from his habits in overswinging or outright losing his positioning return twofold.

If the entry to an engagement does not give Topuria a way to seize back control positionally, every single danger of Topuria’s centerline-focused game can be punished if he commits too much at the wrong time.

There is also reason to suspect that Topuria may have issues with stamina, ranging from his exhaustion against Youssef Zalal and arguably apparent in his final round against Josh Emmett. While Topuria proved he could employ his game for the full twenty-five, it should be noted that he was never made uncomfortable by Emmett. What does a bout past the fifteen minute mark look if Topuria has to work harder than he normally does?

While these are defined observations made about ways Topuria can be beaten, it should be noted that exploiting weaknesses is easier said than done. It will require strategical and tactical specifications to the respective attempter to make those situations happen. Moreover, if the fighter in question has ways to patch the gaps in their armor, the windows become stricter - and Topuria has already demonstrated that he is attentive to making his game better.

Flexibility & Practicality

As an adjuster, Topuria’s are never anything complex; rather, they fall within reallocating the fundamentals of what he’s good at accordingly. In other words, he’ll do what he was already attempting, but make a subtle change to make it more effective.

It’s important to emphasize that Topuria’s offense is his best defense - he has asked his opponents to make him back up and punishes them for trying. Being actively aggressive isn’t going to make him back up on its own as he’ll attempt to regain ground quickly.

This is why, even when facing resistance tied to the identifiable weaknesses, Topuria has proven that he’s no one-trick pony.

Against Jai Herbert, Topuria ran into the issue of Herbert tying throwaway punches to counteract Topuria’s pressure. Not only did this ease up the pressure, it let Herbert plant to set up intercepting counters - a threat of his own. After a tumultuous first round, Topuria and his corner demonstrated an eye for detail with two basic adjustments that completely turned the tide.

First, Topuria actively jabbed more frequently when on the move to occupy the same space Herbert’s did, forcing Herbert to move and no longer plant freely. Second, Topuria dispersed his weight more evenly to have enough space to pull back if Herbert fired back. These two decisions turned the tide almost instantly, setting up Herbert on the fence for an all-time knockout.

Nothing Topuria did here is unexpected as far as his arsenal. Of course he jabs and uses his feints to draw reactions. It’s the fact that his adjustments are within that same process that shows how refined Topuria’s is. He doesn’t have to think too hard with his adjustments; he just doubles down so long as he can maintain a comfortable pace.

If Topuria faces serious resistance, he can simply hopstep out of range. That retreat is only going to be a problem if the opponent can pursue and punish - and there’s been few occasions where he has had little space to even hopstep back towards.

If throwaways are employed, he actually will employ more disorienting feints and try to outposition them first. These are potent enough to befuddle even two of MMA’s finest lead hands.

That said, I’d be remiss to not address the issue of wrestling threats, of which Topuria’s answer mainly relies upon sprawling if the dive to the legs is deep enough. Topuria’s crouched posture and mobility off the hopsteps will also force you to dive lower than usual, so setups will need to be a bit more layered and probably based around reactive shots; very likely opponents will find some success off of tie ups or using the cage wall than in open space unless they’re able to turn him there.

But should an opponent continue to show their hand with their throwaways being empty threats for the real danger in setups, his patented ability to find the right kind of strike can show its hand - as Bryce Mitchell found out.

That last part regarding Topuria’s punch selection deserves accolades, as he relies on a single punch to often shut down a success and score.

Against Max Holloway, who drew Topuria into a left hook counter off of his lead hand manipulations, Topuria relied upon an overhand right as he stepped in or off a split step. Not only did Topuria’s overhand help him close the distance, it also let him catch left hooks across his forearm.

Topuria’s decision-making in his micro-adjusting is also obviously practical, such as handling Josh Emmett’s attempts to elongate exchanges by delaying the timing for his counterpunching.

To point elsewhere, with how heavy Topuria can be on the lead leg, it seems as though that would invite a number of leg kicks, no?

While it’s undeniably a vulnerability, Topuria has managed to mitigate the effectiveness of even versatile kickers like Volkanovski because he draws them out with his feints to begin with.

And if he doesn’t, Topuria takes a page from his contemporary, Max Holloway, and likes to step in when his opponents kick and try to clobber them. At the very least, he’s not conceding space.

Kicking at Topuria seems ideal to create space and shouldn’t be discarded as a viable option, though it’s certainly far from free because he is insistent on pressing to make his opponents unable to plant as easily.

We do not have much information on Topuria’s dealings with southpaws, though there are indications that his control of lead foot positioning in some bouts means he knows what he’s doing.

Open-stance battles are dictated by centerline manipulations - and Topuria’s have proven to be extremely consistent. Now, against a versatile lead hand who can manipulate the centerline themselves, often with the threat of a right hook? That would be an interesting question moving forward.

Tie-ups and said intercepting collisions remain a major question mark.

Topuria’s short interactions indicate that he can be urgent with his grips and trying to brute force his way out. Volkanovski is an excellent clinch fighter, but it’s not an area he often seeks.

Someone who attacks in transitions and weaponizes breaks with an assortment of grips is bound to be a fascinating prospect for Topuria here if he is forced to be there for a prolonged period of time.

There is one major fight worth discussing here for Topuria’s ability to handle himself in a dynamic that doesn’t inherently favor him and that’s his recent victory over Max Holloway, where Topuria was given a difficult question. Here, he faced someone who could trade in layers with him in the pocket, and had the versatility and doggedness to force constant engagements. If Volkanovski was going to be the greatest test of Topuria being the fire opponents needed to navigate, Holloway was the one that was going to ask if Topuria could be in the fire with someone too. To simplify this, Topuria’s A-game was not going to be as accessible and he was to be under constant input and output at every range - could he navigate that kind of terrain when Holloway checked many of the boxes for a fellow striker to give him problems? He proceeded to prove that he decidedly could without foregoing that A-game by asking why fix what was not broken?

With how Topuria presses with often being the shorter man, it’s a given that he needs to close the distance to be effective, so a fighter who can specifically weaponize range is going to demand that he deal with an assortment of problems to close that distance. Holloway’s lead hand has given anyone and everyone a hell of a time. Even Jose Aldo’s exceptional defensive reactions were overwhelmed by too much data. Moreover, with how Aldo’s style was predicated upon winning the exchange, he was dealt with the brutal reality that those trades with Holloway never ended.

How Topuria handled this dilemma was to apply more weight to his rear leg to stand taller and pull back everytime he was at risk of exchanging in layers with Holloway.

But what’s notable is that Topuria still maintained his pressure - his lead hand remained as active as ever, if not moreso. Sure, Topuria was going to have to work harder than his usual comfort zone, but his approach here ensured he didn’t have to discard any of his best tools. Think about everything that we’ve pointed to that Topuria does well and see that all of those pieces are still in place to combat Holloway in the fire without suffocating in an inferno.

I’d be remiss to not point again to Topuria’s knack for picking up on an opponent’s habits and weaponizing them for his own benefit. And that is exactly what he did with Holloway’s rear handtrap:

To help keep his jab going, Holloway weaponizes his rear hand to catch and parry punches as a ‘trigger’ to fire. Here, he was also using it to combat Topuria’s attempts to handfight. The trick is, it told Holloway the distance was appropriate to throw - but the same was true for Topuria.

This is all to say, there are definite areas of concern for Topuria, but they've proven difficult to enforce because Topuria is adept at minimizing the occasions where they can happen with sharp attentiveness and insistent decision-making on the pragmatic side, particularly with his cagecraft - management of the space itself. It will require the right contexts and the right fighter to get Topuria into those situations.

The fighter who defeats Topuria, if they cannot outposition him, will need some equalizer with the right strategical allocations to punish the small margins of error Topuria does have on the feet or be able to pin him. Taking away the initiative matters against a fighter who pursues it as aggressively as Topuria does - that will matter more than anything.

Conclusion: Prospects of An Aspiring Legend

Whenever there are transitions between weight classes, it’s a coinflip as to whether or not the fighter will adapt to new circumstances. Topuria has typically been on the smaller end of physical disparities versus his opposition. That will be more prevalent than ever and demand his skillset and physical gifts translate. Topuria is entering the lightweight division in what appears to be a transitional time, where many of its top contenders are longtime veterans who face the possibility of being displaced by the next generation - and this is no recent deal as some have been holding onto their positions for awhile. With Islam Makhachev, himself a fascinating matchup for Topuria and vice versa, this weight class’ direction is dictated by nothing but eventual results and matchups.

If you were to look at the entire picture of Topuria’s game and ask who can check a number of the boxes for someone who can best him, then his next opponent for the now vacant title, Charles Oliveira, offers enormous promise. Oliveira offers danger in almost every phase, especially the transitional ones.

The Brazilian excels with weaponizing his clinch off of his strikes, using breaks to keep attacks going, and framing to navigate the pocket against prolific dangers. Furthermore, Oliveira is excellent at being physical in tie-ups, gripping the gloves and creating small spaces for debilitating strikes to the midsection - particularly against the fence. He’ll even create separations on purpose to set up new avenues to attack his opposition.

While Topuria’s physical strength has proven exemplary, Oliveira’s is smothering and surprising - the fence is a weapon for him too. One particular feature of note is that Oliveira is willing to take one to give one - and he enjoys taking an angle off a backstep into vicious counter rights.

An assortment of teeps and the most active kicking defense that Topuria will have fought yet while standing tall - and subsequently force Topuria to step inside a different kind of fire than the one he navigated expertly against Holloway - is why Oliveira, should he show up in form, is capable of delivering a multifaceted world of pain to halt an unbeaten run.

The key caveat is ‘should’ because Oliveira is no spring chicken in his career at this point, and his last few have shown signs of physical regression. Moreover, even at his peak, Oliveira has remained hittable and has had to recover from sequences of extreme danger in some of the decade’s wildest shootouts. It’s especially worrying to consider how Topuria will have the most nuanced pressure footwork Oliveira will have faced to date.

Oliveira isn’t easy to back off himself either, but he has never had the best of composure on the retreat and Michael Chandler’s constant use of the body jab as a foundation for setups in both meetings with him is the sort of read that Topuria will feed on without showing his entire hand.

Ultimately, this is a matchup that is going to be decided by who can manipulate forward momentum on the centerline and initiative. Oliveira has the wider kit to tug the rope in his direction, but he can be inconsistent whereas Topuria is not one to concede. Should Topuria lose the battle for initiative here, then this could well be a test of his game in the many other phases of MMA.

Sequences like these are likely to be very instructive of what will be the battle of the centerline between Topuria’s entries and pressure versus Oliveira’s intercepting tactics and counters.

I’d also mention that many of the top contenders at lightweight do offer specifically interesting challenges. Justin Gaethje may have a lack of uniformity in his game, but, on point, his counters and leg kicks can prove a challenge. Arman Tsarukyan and Mateus Gamrot have some of the chain wrestling games to test Topuria’s in layers should they find answers to his pressure. I can point to others, but the fact remains that we will not know how Topuria fits into the scene until we see it.

It’s to Topuria’s credit that despite there being many unknowns for his game, including some matchups that he hasn’t faced, his achievements cause so much pause in predictions. Some can argue all day about him defeating Volkanovski and Holloway at a set point of their careers where perhaps they were not at their physical best, but those were two of the best MMA has ever offered since the decade even started - and against Topuria, their technical attributes were far from diminished. Topuria’s own approaches would likely be effective against them at any point - whether the same finishing results would occur is just speculation. What is apparent is that Ilia Topuria is without question one of the pugilists to watch, not just in MMA, but in all of combat sports right now. Topuria has branded himself as a legend-in-the-making. He has left a mark so far, so I say: Let’s see how far he can go? He certainly continues to surprise me - and that’s always a good quality in my book.

Thank you for reading.